干扰因素

干扰因素（英语：confounder、confound或confounding variable），又称为干扰因子、干扰变量、混淆变量、共变因等，在统计学和因果关系中是指会同时影响自变量和因变量，导致出现伪关系的一种变量。在不严谨的语境下，干扰因子也可以指所有未知变数（lurking variable），包括中介变因和对撞变因。干扰因子会造成伪关系，是相关不蕴涵因果的原因之一。^[1]^[2]^[3]

参见

轶事证据
因果推断——确认一个变量和它的影响之间存在因果关系的过程
辛普森悖论——数据统计悖论

参考文献

^ Pearl, J., (2009). Simpson's Paradox, Confounding, and Collapsibility In Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference (2nd ed.). New York : Cambridge University Press.
^ VanderWeele, T.J.; Shpitser, I. On the definition of a confounder. Annals of Statistics. 2013, 41 (1): 196–220. PMC 4276366 . PMID 25544784. arXiv:1304.0564 . doi:10.1214/12-aos1058.
^ Greenland, S.; Robins, J. M.; Pearl, J. Confounding and Collapsibility in Causal Inference. Statistical Science. 1999, 14 (1): 29–46. doi:10.1214/ss/1009211805 .

[Pearl_2009-1] Pearl, J., (2009). Simpson's Paradox, Confounding, and Collapsibility In Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference (2nd ed.). New York : Cambridge University Press.

[2] VanderWeele, T.J.; Shpitser, I. On the definition of a confounder. Annals of Statistics. 2013, 41 (1): 196–220. PMC 4276366 . PMID 25544784. arXiv:1304.0564 . doi:10.1214/12-aos1058.

[Greenland_Pearl_Robbins_1999-3] Greenland, S.; Robins, J. M.; Pearl, J. Confounding and Collapsibility in Causal Inference. Statistical Science. 1999, 14 (1): 29–46. doi:10.1214/ss/1009211805 .

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