2024年賓夕法尼亞州聯邦參議員選舉
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報告票數 | 99.5% | ||||||||||||||||
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2024年賓夕法尼亞州聯邦參議員選舉於11月5日舉行,旨在選舉出代表賓夕法尼亞州的美國參議院議員。在此次選舉中,現任民主黨籍參議員小鮑勃·凱西敗於共和黨提名人戴維·麥考密克,未能贏得第四任期。[2]此次選舉初選於2024年4月23日舉行。[3]這場選舉被視為民主黨能否保住參議院多數黨地位的關鍵之戰。[4]
背景
賓夕法尼亞州在聯邦層面被認為是搖擺州,尤其是因為在2020年總統大選中喬·拜登僅以約1.2個百分點的優勢贏得該州。民主黨目前控制着賓夕法尼亞州的聯邦參議員以及州長職位,同時在該州聯邦眾議院代表團以及賓夕法尼亞州眾議院占據多數。共和黨上次於賓夕法尼亞州贏得聯邦參議員席位是在2016年。[5][6][7][8]
現任參議員小鮑勃·凱西於2006年的藍色浪潮中順利當選,當時他以大約17個百分點的優勢擊敗了時任參議員里克·桑托勒姆。在2012年他以9個百分點的優勢再次當選(當時他領先奧巴馬近4個百分點),並在2018年的藍色浪潮中以13個百分點的優勢再次當選。[9][10][11]
這場競選因該州黨派傾向接近均衡而被視為競爭激烈的選舉,然而大多數民調顯示凱西略微領先,是獲勝的熱門人選。[12]
民主黨初選
候選人
提名人
取消資格
各方背書
小鮑勃·凱西
- 行政部門官員
- 聯邦參議員
- 聯邦眾議員
- 克里斯·卡尼,賓夕凡尼亞州第十國會選區議員(2007年-2011年)[16]
- 克里斯·德魯齊奧,賓夕凡尼亞州第十七國會選區議員(2003年至今)[17]
- 克麗茜·霍拉罕,賓夕凡尼亞州第六國會選區議員(2019年至今)[16]
- 康納·蘭姆,賓夕凡尼亞州第十七國會選區議員(2018年-2023年)[16]
- 州級官員
- 個人
- 政黨
- 組織
- 美國以色列公共事務委員會(AIPAC)[23]
- CASA在行動[24]
- 宜居世界委員會[25]
- 以色列民主黨多數派[26]
- 結束公民聯合會[27]
- 女權多數政治行動委員會[28]
- 吉福茲[29]
- 哈佛大學民主黨[30]
- 人權戰線[31]
- 人道協會立法基金[32]
- 美國猶太民主黨委員會[33]
- 政治事務聯合行動委員會[34]
- 環境保護選民聯盟[35]
- 全國維護社會保障和醫療保險委員會[36]
- 自然資源保護委員會[37]
- 美國下一代政治行動委員會[21]
- 和平行動[38]
- 賓夕法尼亞州教育協會[39]
- 美國之道組織[40]
- 向左搖擺[41]
- 工會
- 演員權益協會[42]
- 美國州、市、縣和市政雇員聯合會第13理事會[43]
- 空乘人員協會[44]
- 全國教育協會[45]
- 賓夕法尼亞州勞工聯合會-產業工會聯合會[46]
- 美國礦工聯合會[47]
- 美國鋼鐵工人聯合會[48]
- 報紙
籌款狀況
截至2024年4月15日競選財務報告 | |||
---|---|---|---|
候選人 | 籌款數 | 花銷 | 手頭資金 |
小鮑勃·凱西(D) | $23,790,263 | $12,391,802 | $11,886,480 |
來源:聯邦選舉委員會[50] |
選舉結果
黨派 | 候選人 | 得票數 | 百分比 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | 小鮑勃·凱西(現任) | 1,024,545 | 100.00% | |
合計 | 1,024,545 | 100.00% |
共和黨初選
候選人
提名人
中途退選
- 布蘭迪·托馬塞蒂,前康尼斯托加鎮財務主管兼秘書(以海選候選人身份參選)[53]
取消資格
拒絕參選
- 凱西·巴內特,政治評論員,2020年賓夕法尼亞州第四國會選區候選人,2022年聯邦參議院候選人[55]
- 斯泰西·加里蒂,賓夕法尼亞州司庫(2021年至今)[56] (參選連任)[57]
- 道格·馬斯特里亞諾,州參議院第33選區參議員(2019年至今),2022 年賓夕法尼亞州州長候選人[58] (背書麥考密克)[59]
各方背書
戴維·麥考密克
- 行政部門官員
- 喬治·W·布什,美國第43任總統(2001年-2009年)[60]
- 卡爾·羅夫,前白宮政策副幕僚長(2005年-2007年)[60]
- 唐納德·特朗普,美國第45任總統(2017年-2021年)兼共和黨總統候選人[61]
- 聯邦官員
- 州內閣官員
- 羅伯特·格里森,前賓夕法尼亞州州務卿(1985年-1987年)[64]
- 聯邦參議員
- 帕特·圖米,賓夕法尼亞州聯邦參議員(2011年-2023年)[65]
- 里克·桑托勒姆,賓夕法尼亞州聯邦參議員(1995年-2007年)[66]
- 瑪莎·布萊克本,田納西州聯邦參議員(2019年至今)[67]
- 史蒂夫·戴恩斯,蒙大拿州聯邦參議員(2015年至今)[68]
- 米奇·麥康奈爾,美國肯塔基州聯邦參議員(1985年至今)兼參議院少數黨領袖(2007年-2015年,2021年至今)[69]
- 聯邦眾議員
- 布萊恩·菲茨派翠克,賓夕凡尼亞州第一國會選區議員(2017年至今)[64]
- 吉姆·喬丹,俄亥俄州第四國會選區議員(2007年至今)[70]
- 約翰·喬伊斯,賓夕凡尼亞州第十三國會選區(2019年至今)[64]
- 麥克·凱利 ,賓夕凡尼亞州第十六國會選區(2011年至今)[64]
- 丹·默瑟,賓夕凡尼亞州第九國會選區(2019年至今)[64]
- 斯科特·佩里,賓夕凡尼亞州第十國會選區(2013年至今)[64]
- 蓋伊·瑞森紹爾,賓夕凡尼亞州第十四國會選區(2019年至今)[64]
- 羅伊德·斯馬克,賓夕凡尼亞州第十一國會選區(2017年至今)[64]
- 格倫·湯普森,賓夕凡尼亞州第十五國會選區(2009年至今)[64]
- 州參議員
- 地方官員
- 政黨官員
- 組織
- 政黨
- 個人
籌款
截至2024年4月15日競選財務報告 | |||
---|---|---|---|
候選人 | 籌款數 | 花銷 | 手頭現金 |
戴維·麥考密克(R) | $11,052,879 | $4,660,701 | $6,399,998 |
來源:聯邦選舉委員會[50] |
民調
假定狀況下的民調
民調來源 | 調查 日期 |
樣本 大小[a] |
誤差 幅度 |
凱西·巴內特 | 道格·馬斯特里亞諾 | 戴維·麥考密克 | 未決定 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) | 2023年3月9日至10日 | 616 (LV) | – | 11% | 39% | 21% | 29% |
– | – | 42% | 28% | 29% |
選舉結果
黨派 | 候選人 | 得票數 | 百分比 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
共和黨 | 戴維·麥考密克 | 878,320 | 100.00% | |
合計 | 878,320 | 100.00% |
第三黨候選人
自由意志黨大會
提名人
- 約翰·托馬斯,教育家[81]
大會上被淘汰
- 埃里克·格哈特,木匠,2022年聯邦參議員選舉提名人,2020年總統候選人[82]
綠黨
提名人
- 利拉·哈祖,店主[83]
憲法黨
提名人
- 伯納德·塞爾克,卡車司機[83]
美國團結黨
取消資格
- 埃里克·梅西納[84]
決選
預測
來源 | 評級 | 日期 |
---|---|---|
庫克政治報告[85] | 搖擺不定 | 2024年10月21日 |
選舉內部[86] | 傾向D | 2023年11月9日 |
薩巴託的水晶球[87] | 偏向D | 2024年6月13日 |
DDHQ/國會山報[88] | 偏向D | 2024年6月8日 |
選舉日報[89] | 偏向D | 2024年10月24日 |
CNalysis[90] | 偏向D | 2023年11月21日 |
真清晰政治[91] | 搖擺不定 | 2024年8月5日 |
分裂投票[92] | 偏向D | 2024年10月23日 |
538[93] | 偏向D | 2024年10月28日 |
初選後各方背書
小鮑勃·凱西(D)
戴維·麥考密克(R)
籌款狀況
截至2024年10月16日競選財務報告 | |||
---|---|---|---|
候選人 | 籌款數 | 花銷 | 手頭資金 |
小鮑勃·凱西(D) | $52,879,737 | $50,545,793 | $2,821,961 |
戴維·麥考密克(R) | $27,698,652[b] | $26,030,736 | $1,675,736 |
來源:聯邦選舉委員會[50] |
辯論
編號 | 日期 | 主辦方 | 主持人 | 鏈接 | 民主黨 | 共和黨 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P 參加 A 缺席 N 未受邀 I 受邀 W 退出 | ||||||
凱西 | 麥考密克 | |||||
1 | 2024年10月3日 | WHTM-TV | 丹尼斯·歐文斯 | YouTube | P | P |
2 | 2024年10月15日 | WPVI-TV | 馬特·奧唐納、莎莉·威廉姆斯以及伊利亞·加西亞 | C-SPAN | P | P |
民調
- 民意調查匯總
民意調查匯總來源 | 調查日期 | 更新日期 | 小鮑勃·凱西(D) | 戴維·麥考密克(R) | 未決定 [c] |
誤差 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FiveThirtyEight | 截至2024年11月4日 | 2024年11月4日 | 48.2% | 45.4% | 6.4% | 凱西+2.8% |
RealClearPolitics | 2024年10月21日至11月4日 | 2024年11月4日 | 48.1% | 46.3% | 5.6% | 凱西+1.8% |
270toWin | 2024年10月24日至11月4日 | 2024年11月4日 | 48.4% | 45.9% | 5.7% | 凱西+2.5% |
TheHill/DDHQ | 截至2024年11月4日 | 2024年11月4日 | 48.6% | 46.6% | 4.8% | 凱西+2.0% |
平均 | 48.3% | 46.1% | 5.6% | 凱西+2.2% |
民調來源 | 調查 日期 |
樣本 大小[a] |
誤差 幅度 |
小鮑勃·凱西(D) | 戴維·麥考密克(R) | 其他 | 未決定 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntel | 2024年11月3日至4日 | 1,840 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 47% | 2% | 2% |
Survation | 2024年11月1日至4日 | 929 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 3%[d] | 6% |
Research Co. | 2024年11月2日至3日 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 46% | 2%[e] | 4% |
Patriot Polling (R) | 2024年11月1日至3日 | 903 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | – | – |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | 2024年11月1日至3日 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | – | 7% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | 2024年11月1日至2日 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 3% |
AtlasIntel | 2024年11月1日至2日 | 2,049 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 47% | 3%[f] | 2% |
Emerson College[A] | 2024年10月30日至11月2日 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
NYT/Siena College[B] | 2024年10月29日至11月2日 | 1,527 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 45% | – | 4% |
1,527 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 45% | – | 6% | ||
Mainstreet Research/FAU | 2024年10月25日至11月2日 | 699 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 44% | 1%[g] | 6% |
726 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 43% | 2%[h] | 7% | ||
Morning Consult | 2024年10月23日至11月1日 | 1,538 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
OnMessage (R) | 2024年10月29日至31日 | 800 (LV) | – | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
Data for Progress (D) | 2024年10月25日至31日 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | 2%[i] | 4% |
YouGov[C] | 2024年10月25日至31日 | 947 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 44% | – | 6% |
982 (RV) | 50% | 43% | – | 6% | |||
ActiVote | 2024年10月14日至31日 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50.5% | 49.5% | – | – |
Muhlenberg College[D] | 2024年10月27日至30日 | 460 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 49% | 46% | 3% | 1% |
Suffolk University[E] | 2024年10月27日至30日 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 2%[i] | 2% |
Marist College | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,400 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 48% | 1%[j] | 1% |
1,558 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 48% | 1%[j] | 1% | ||
Echelon Insights | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 47% | 3%[k] | 5% |
AtlasIntel | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 3%[f] | 2% |
The Washington Post | October 26–30, 2024 | 1,204 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 46% | 2%[l] | 3% |
1,204 (RV) | 49% | 45% | 3%[m] | 3% | |||
AtlasIntel | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,229 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 3%[f] | 2% |
Fox News | October 24–28, 2024 | 1,057 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | – | 1% |
1,310 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 51% | 46% | 1% | 2% | ||
Quinnipiac University | October 24–28, 2024 | 2,186 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 50% | 47% | 2%[n] | 1% |
Monmouth University | October 24–28, 2024 | 824 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 44% | – | 12% |
CNN/SSRS | October 23–28, 2024 | 819 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 45% | 6%[o] | 1% |
CBS News/YouGov | October 22–28, 2024 | 1,249 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 42% | 3%[p] | 7% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 26–27, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | 2%[q] | 4% |
North Star Opinion Research (R)[F] | October 22–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 42% | 5%[r] | 9% |
UMass Lowell/YouGov | October 16–23, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 3%[s] | 7% |
Emerson College[G] | October 21–22, 2024 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 46% | 2%[t] | 6% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | October 18–22, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 2%[u] | 4% |
Franklin & Marshall College | October 9–20, 2024 | 583 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 3% |
794 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 41% | 5%[v] | 6% | ||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 17–19, 2024 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
AtlasIntel | October 12–17, 2024 | 2,048 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 48% | 2%[w] | 3% |
The Bullfinch Group | October 11–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | – | 8% |
YouGov[H] | October 7–17, 2024 | 1,043 (LV) | ± 3.44% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
1,062 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% | ||
Morning Consult | October 6–15, 2024 | 1,395 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
NYT/Siena College[B] | October 7–10, 2024 | 857 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
857 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 43% | – | 9% | ||
American Pulse Research & Polling | October 2–10, 2024 | 1,193 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 45% | 2%[x] | 5% |
TIPP Insights (R)[F] | October 7–9, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 43% | 1%[y] | 9% |
1,079 (RV) | 48% | 40% | 1%[z] | 12% | |||
UMass Lowell/YouGov | October 2–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 3%[aa] | 10% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 7–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 45% | 2%[q] | 6% |
Emerson College[A] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
Research Co. | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 44% | 1%[ab] | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 51% | 43% | 2%[ac] | 5% |
ActiVote | September 6 – October 7, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
OnMessage Inc. (R)[ad] | September 28–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 44% | 5%[ae] | 7% |
Patriot Polling (R) | September 27–29, 2024 | 816 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | – | – |
The Bullfinch Group[I] | September 26–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 48% | 39% | 12%[af] | – |
52% | 42% | 6%[ag] | – | ||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 26–29, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
Emerson College[G] | September 27–28, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
AtlasIntel | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 45% | 1%[ah] | 6% |
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] | September 19–25, 2024 | 474 (LV) | – | 48% | 42% | 3%[ai] | 6% |
52% | 45% | – | 3% | ||||
Fox News | September 20–24, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 44% | 1%[aj] | 2% |
1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 44% | 1%[aj] | 2% | ||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/ Impact Research (D)[K] |
September 17–24, 2024 | 816 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | September 16–22, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 40% | 1%[ak] | 11% |
RMG Research[L] | September 18–20, 2024 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 44% | 1%[aj] | 5% |
Remington Research Group (R)[M] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | – | 7% |
Muhlenberg College[D] | September 16–19, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 43% | 5% | 4% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | September 16–19, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 41% | 2%[al] | 10% |
UMass Lowell/YouGov | September 11–19, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 38% | 3%[aa] | 13% |
Emerson College[A] | September 15–18, 2024 | 880 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
MassINC Polling Group[O] | September 12–18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 2%[am] | 6% |
Morning Consult | September 9–18, 2024 | 1,756 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
Marist College | September 12–17, 2024 | 1,663 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 46% | 1%[j] | 1% |
1,476 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 47% | – | 1% | ||
Quinnipiac University | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,331 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 52% | 43% | 1%[an] | 3% |
The Washington Post | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 46% | 7%[ao] | – |
48% | 48% | 5%[ap] | – | ||||
NYT/Siena College[B] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,082 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
1,082 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% | ||
InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | 2%[q] | 5% |
Franklin & Marshall College | September 4–15, 2024 | 890 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 40% | 3%[aq] | 10% |
Suffolk University[E] | September 11–14, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 43% | 2%[ar] | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | September 6–9, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 36% | 5%[as] | 14% |
Morning Consult | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,910 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
co/efficient | September 4–6, 2024 | 889 (LV) | ± 3.29% | 45% | 36% | – | 19% |
CBS News/YouGov | September 3–6, 2024 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 3%[at] | 8% |
YouGov[C] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 41% | – | 8% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | – | 8% |
CNN/SRSS | August 23–29, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 46% | 46% | 7%[au] | 1% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 38% | 4%[av] | 14% |
Emerson College[A] | August 25–28, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
SoCal Strategies (R)[P] | August 23, 2024 | 713 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
800 (RV) | – | 45% | 40% | – | 15% | ||
ActiVote | August 3-23, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
Fabrizio Ward[Q] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
Cygnal (R) | August 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
42% | 38% | 7%[aw] | 13% | ||||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | August 12–15, 2024 | 825 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 36% | 1%[ax] | 17% |
Emerson College | August 13–14, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | August 8–12, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 52% | 44% | 1%[ay] | 3% |
The Bullfinch Group[R] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
Franklin & Marshall College | July 21 – August 11, 2024 | 920 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 36% | 3%[az] | 13% |
NYT/Siena College | August 6–9, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 36% | – | 14% |
693 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 37% | – | 11% | ||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 40% | 2%[ba] | 12% |
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] | July 26 – August 2, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 53% | 40% | – | 7% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | July 22–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
Fox News | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 42% | – | 1% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | July 22–24, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | 4%[bb] | 11% |
Emerson College[S] | July 22–23, 2024 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
SoCal Research (R)[T] | July 20–21, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[U] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | July 16–18, 2024 | 688 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 3%[bc] | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[V] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
YouGov[C] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 38% | 1% | 11% |
889 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% | ||
NYT/Siena College | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | – | 10% |
872 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% | ||
Expedition Strategies[W] | June 24 – July 8, 2024 | 284 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
Remington Research Group (R)[M] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 4% |
Cygnal (R) | June 27–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
The Bullfinch Group[X] | June 14–19, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 36% | – | 16% |
Emerson College[A] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
Marist College | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,181 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 46% | – | 2% |
Mainstreet Research/FAU | May 30–31, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 40% | 5% | 7% |
923 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 42% | 3% | 6% | ||
KAConsulting (R)[Y] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 47% | 37% | 4%[bd] | 12% |
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] | May 6–13, 2024 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
NYT/Siena College[B] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
1,023 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% | ||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[K] |
April 24–30, 2024 | 1,398 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
Emerson College[A] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
CBS News/YouGov | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,306 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
Muhlenberg College | April 15–25, 2024 | 417 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 45% | 41% | 5% | 9% |
The Bullfinch Group[R] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | 9% | 8% |
National Public Affairs | March 2024 | 759 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 28% | – | 40% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 20–31, 2024 | 431 (RV) | ± 5.7% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
The Bullfinch Group[X] | March 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 30% | 8% | 15% |
Emerson College | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | February 27 – March 7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 42% | – | 10% |
Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | – | 13% |
Chism Strategies | February 6–8, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 37% | – | 25% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[Z] | January 22–25, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 40% | – | 12% |
Franklin & Marshall College | January 17–28, 2023 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 35% | 4% | 14% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | January 15–21, 2024 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 42% | 3% | 9% |
Quinnipiac University | January 4–8, 2024 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 53% | 43% | 1%[aj] | 2% |
Common Ground (R)[X] | December 8–12, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 27% | 13%[be] | 20% |
Change Research (D)[AA] | December 3–7, 2023 | 2,532 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 0% | 15% |
Franklin & Marshall College | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 39% | 4% | 12% |
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 41% | 33% | 8% | 18% |
Quinnipiac University | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 44% | 2%[bf] | 4% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 41% | 1% | 5% |
Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | 0% | 13% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | – | 23% |
假定狀況下的民調
- 小鮑勃·凱西 vs 道格·馬斯特里亞諾
民調來源 | 調查 日期 |
樣本 大小[a] |
誤差 幅度 |
小鮑勃·凱西(D) | 道格·馬斯特里亞諾(R) | 未決定 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 31% | 22% |
Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
選舉結果
政黨 | 候選人 | 票數 | % | ± | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
共和黨 | 戴維·麥考密克 | 3,369,032 | 49.02% | ||
Democratic | 小鮑勃·凱西(現任) | 3,327,838 | 48.42% | ||
自由黨 | 約翰·托馬斯 | 88,299 | 1.28% | ||
綠黨 | 利拉·哈祖 | 64,552 | 0.94% | ||
憲法黨 | 伯納德·塞爾克 | 23,287 | 0.34% | ||
總票數 | 6,874,008 | 100.0% |
注釋
- ^ 1.0 1.1 1.2 示例:
A – 全部成人
RV – 登記選民
LV – 可能的選民
V – 不清楚 - ^ 其中麥考密克自籌資金4,263,800美元
- ^ 計算方法為取100%與其他所有候選人的成績之差。
- ^ 托馬斯(L)和哈祖(G)各占1%; 1%選「拒絕」
- ^ 「其他候選人」占2%
- ^ 6.0 6.1 6.2 "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
- ^ 「另一位候選人」占1%
- ^ 「另一位候選人」占2%
- ^ 9.0 9.1 Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%
- ^ 10.0 10.1 10.2 "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- ^ 哈祖(G)2%; 托馬斯(L)1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ "Refused" with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ 17.0 17.1 17.2 "Other" with 2%
- ^ Thomas (L) with 2%; Hazou (G) and Selker (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ Thomas with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Refuse" with 2%
- ^ "Other" (Thomas (L), Hazou (G) & Selker (C)) with 5%
- ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 1%
- ^ 27.0 27.1 Hazou (G) and Thomas (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- ^ Poll sponsored by Sentinel Action Fund
- ^ "Other" with 5%
- ^ "None of the Above" with 9%; "Other" with 3%
- ^ Thomas (L) with 3%, Hazou (G) with 2%, and Selker (C) with 1%
- ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.3 "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 1%
- ^ Thomas (L), "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
- ^ "Another candidate" and "Would not vote for senate" each with 1%; "Prefer not to say" with <1%
- ^ "Refused" with 1%
- ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; Thomas (L), Hazou (G), and "Would not vote" each with 1%
- ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 3%; "Would not vote" each with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 3%
- ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Selker (C) with 1%; Hazou (G) with <1%
- ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Thomas (L) with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%
- ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
- ^ Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%
- ^ Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
- ^ "Refused" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
- ^ John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
- ^ Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
- ^ "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- 黨派
- ^ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Poll sponsored by The Hill
- ^ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Poll sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer
- ^ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ 4.0 4.1 Poll sponsored by The Morning Call
- ^ 5.0 5.1 Poll sponsored by USA Today
- ^ 6.0 6.1 Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ 7.0 7.1 Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
- ^ Poll sponsored by Rose Institute of State and Local Government
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation
- ^ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
- ^ 11.0 11.1 Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- ^ 13.0 13.1 Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
- ^ 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
- ^ Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
- ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
- ^ 18.0 18.1 Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
- ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
- ^ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
- ^ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
- ^ 24.0 24.1 24.2 Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
- ^ Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- ^ Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.
參考文獻
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Casey will be the only Democrat on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate after a successful objection against William Parker’s nomination petitions removed him from the ballot.
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- ^ Our Recommended Candidates. Education Votes. [2023-11-20]. (原始內容存檔於2022-12-04) (美國英語).
- ^ Lyons, Kim. Casey picks up PA AFL-CIO endorsement. Pennsylvania Capital-Star. [2023-12-14] (美國英語).
- ^ United Mine Workers endorses Casey for re-election in Pennsylvania. UMWA. [2023-09-30]. (原始內容存檔於2023-09-30).
- ^ USW Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to U.S. Senate. United Steelworkers. 2023-09-20 [2023-09-20]. (原始內容存檔於2023-09-20) (英語).
- ^ Staff, P. G. N. PGN Editorial Endorsements: Primary 2024. Philadelphia Gay News. 2024-04-10 [2024-04-24] (美國英語).
- ^ 50.0 50.1 50.2 2024 Election United States Senate - Pennsylvania. fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. [2024-07-19].
- ^ 51.0 51.1 2024 Presidential Primary Official Results - United States Senator. Pennsylvania Department of State. [2024-05-04].
- ^ Steinhauser, Paul. Republican Dave McCormick launches bid for vulnerable Senate seat in battleground state. Fox News. 2023-09-21 [2023-09-21].
- ^ Cole, John. Three candidates for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat remain on ballot following petition challenges. Pennsylvania Capital-Star. 2024-03-08 [2024-03-09].
- ^ Cole, John. Casey vs McCormick general election matchup appears set after petition challenges. Pennsylvania-Capital Star. 2024-03-11 [2024-03-12].
- ^ Lippman, Daniel; Otterbein, Holly. MAGA favorite Kathy Barnette says she won't run again for Senate. POLITICO. 2023-03-15 [2023-03-16] (英語).
- ^ A well-liked incumbent stands in the way of Republicans retaking the Pennsylvania Senate seat. 2023-05-25.
- ^ Cruz, Abby; McDuffie, Will. Republican who narrowly lost to Dr. Oz expected to run again for Senate. ABC News. 2023-09-15 [2023-09-23].
- ^ Weaver, Al. Doug Mastriano decides against launching Senate bid. The Hill. 2023-05-25.
- ^ 59.0 59.1 Smith, Allan; Bowman, Bridget. Republican Dave McCormick jumps into the critical Pennsylvania Senate race. NBC News. 2023-09-21 [2023-09-22] (英語).
- ^ 60.0 60.1 Dave McCormick April 2024 Event in Texas with George W. Bush. Documented. 2024-04-09 [2024-04-09].
- ^ LeVine, Marianne. Trump endorses a Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidate he once condemned. The Washington Post. 2024-04-13 [2024-04-13].
- ^ Ambassador John Bolton Endorses Dave McCormick for Senate in Pennsylvania. John Bolton PAC. 2024-04-03 [2024-04-03].
- ^ Siwy, Bruce. Who is David McCormick? Here are 5 things to know about Bob Casey's possible GOP opponent. Erie Times-News. 2023-09-21 [2023-10-01] (美國英語).
- ^ 64.00 64.01 64.02 64.03 64.04 64.05 64.06 64.07 64.08 64.09 64.10 Salant, Jonathan D.; Kail, Benjamin. A top conservative group picked a candidate in the GOP primary to take on Chris Deluzio. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. 2023-09-28 [2023-10-01] (美國英語).
- ^ Terruso, Julia. Steak in the race: Dave McCormick visits Geno's with former Sen. Pat Toomey. The Philadelphia Inquirer. 2024-04-03 [2024-04-17] (美國英語).
- ^ Kalinowski, Bob. McCormick, allies blast Casey during Back Mountain campaign stop. The Citizens' Voice. 2024-04-04 [2024-04-17] (美國英語).
- ^ Newhouse, Savannah. Senator Marsha Blackburn Endorses Dave McCormick for Senate. LegiStorm. 2023-09-27 [2023-10-01] (美國英語).
- ^ Mutnick, Ally. This GOP hopeful got on Trump's bad side last year. Now he might decide control of the Senate.. Politico. 2023-09-21 [2023-09-22]. (原始內容存檔於2023-09-22) (英語).
- ^ Tamari, Jonathan. McCormick's Second Senate Try Hinges on Fitting a Changed GOP. Bloomberg Government. 2023-05-24 [2023-10-01].
- ^ Eberwein, Richard. David McCormick's campaign won't say if he would support Duckworth's bill to protect IVF. Heartland Signal. 2024-03-07 [2024-04-03].
- ^ White, Jaxon. State Sen. Ryan Aument would endorse Dave McCormick's U.S. Senate run. LNP Lancaster Online. 2023-09-21 [2023-10-01] (美國英語).
- ^ Levy, Marc. Trump blowback could carry less bite in 2024 for some in GOP. Associated Press. 2022-12-08 [2023-01-19] (英語).
- ^ Seidel, Emily. Americans for Prosperity Action Announces First Wave of Endorsements in 2024 U.S. Senate Races. AFP Action. 2023-07-19 [2023-07-19] (美國英語).
- ^ 74.0 74.1 CPAC Endorses David McCormick for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania. CPAC.
- ^ 2024 ENDORSED CANDIDATES. Log Cabin Republicans. [2024-04-03].
- ^ Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans (@PACRFederation). PAFCR Endorses @DaveMcCormickPA in Crucial Race for United States Senate. Twitter. 2023-10-01 [2023-10-02].
- ^ Penn State College Republicans (@PennStateGOP). Penn State College Republicans Endorse Dave McCormick for United States Senate. Twitter. 2023-10-01 [2023-10-01] (美國英語).
- ^ RJC Endorses Pennsylvania US Senate Candidate Dave McCormick. Republican Jewish Coalition. [2024-02-16] (英語).
- ^ Mastrull, Diane. David McCormick secures Pa. GOP endorsement in his Senate run. The Philadelphia Inquirer. 2023-09-30 [2023-09-30] (英語).
- ^ 80.0 80.1 80.2 Lai, Stephanie. Ken Griffin, Charles Schwab to Host Fundraiser for David McCormick's Senate Bid. Bloomberg. 2023-12-14 [2024-04-17] (美國英語).
- ^ Deemer, Jacob. Armstrong County Man Launches U.S. Senate Campaign. exploreClarion. 2024-04-11 [2024-04-14].
- ^ Nominations for Statewide Offices. Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania. 2024-03-02 [2024-04-14].
- ^ 83.0 83.1 Third-party candidates file to run for president, US Senate in Pennsylvania. PennLIVE Patriot-News. The Associated Press. 2024-08-01 [2024-08-02].
- ^ PA Voter Services. www.pavoterservices.pa.gov. [2024-08-02].
- ^ 2024 Senate Race ratings. Cook Political Report. [2023-01-25] (英語).
- ^ Senate Ratings. Inside Elections. 2023-01-06 [2023-01-10].
- ^ 2024 Senate. Sabato's Crystal Ball. 2023-01-24 [2023-02-13].
- ^ 2024 Senate prediction map. elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. 2024-06-08 [2024-06-08].
- ^ Election Ratings. Elections Daily. 2023-08-01 [2023-08-02] (美國英語).
- ^ '24 Senate Forecast. CNalysis. [2023-11-21] (美國英語).
- ^ Battle for the Senate 2024. RealClearPolitics. [2024-08-05] (美國英語).
- ^ 2024 Senate Forecast. Split Ticket. 2023-05-25 [2024-10-23].
- ^ 2024 Election Forecast. FiveThirtyEight. 2024-06-11 [2024-10-23].
- ^ Fay, Laura. Biden to campaign with Sen. Bob Casey in Philadelphia area Tuesday night. CBS News. 2024-10-08.
- ^ Remarks by Vice President Harris at a Campaign Event. The White House. 2024-09-14 [2024-10-09].
- ^ Colson-Price, Patrick. Former president Obama campaigns for Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Sen. Bob Casey in Pittsburgh. USA Today. 2024-10-10 [2024-10-15].
- ^ @BenZeisloft. I am an evangelical voter in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump could have had my vote had he not started to support most kinds of abortion and vowed to fund IVF with my tax dollars. I am casting my vote for @DustyDeevers as President and for @BradleyWPierce as Vice President. I know that both men fear the Lord and would establish justice if they were elected. I voted for some Republicans in state and local races, some third-party candidates like @JohnThomasPA who have vowed to protect the preborn, and wrote in qualified Christian men when there were no other options. None of this was necessary. I would have voted for Donald Trump or any other Republican candidate who vowed to protect the preborn and end mass child sacrifice in our nation. If the Republican Party wants evangelical votes, they cannot shirk evangelical policy priorities, and most importantly they cannot shirk their duty to obey and honor the Triune God and govern in their offices with justice and righteousness. I will not reward betrayal with my vote. (推文) –透過Twitter. Missing or empty |date= (help)
- ^ Libertarian US Senate candidate receives crucial endorsement. Leader Times. 2024-10-03 [2024-10-10].
- ^ Suter, Tara. Nikki Haley tells Pennsylvania voters: 'Take the emotion out' of vote. The Hill. 2024-10-31 [2024-11-03] (英語).
- ^ Mutnick, Ally. John Thune doles out the money as he runs for Senate GOP leader. Politico. 2024-10-15 [2024-10-17] (英語).
- ^ Phox, Jason. McCormick joins Musk at Pittsburgh-area town hall. Pennsylvania Capital-Star. 2024-10-20 [2024-10-21].
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